POLITICAL MOBILISATION IN DOWN UNDER

by M RAMA RAO, Dec 15-31 in The Field Marshal, Chandigarh

Developments in Andhra Pradesh have become the talk of the political circuit in the capital. It is not always the land of Charminar and Salar Jung Museum attracts media and political attention here.

Political analysts and pundits are impressed by the response the Mayawati phenomenon has evoked in Andhra Pradesh. Also topic for animated discussion is the possibility of yet another film star, Chiranjivi, Chiru to his fans, entering politics. He is a mega star and has a fan following which is the envy of any cadre based party. Till now he confined himself to charity work particularly blood donation campaigns.

Opinion is divided on how enduring Maya-Chiru developments will be.

‘Chiranjivi is not a MGR or a NTR despite his fan following’, according to a senior political leader, who pointed out that the circumstances that propelled MGR and NTR into politics were different. In his assessment, Chiranjivi by allowing the suspense to last a little longer will not help his own cause. Whatever decision he takes, he has to take it quickly. Politics, in essence, is timing.

Another leader, a Leftist who hails from Tamilnadu, cites the case of super star Rajnikant.. ‘There was this talk of Rajni joining politics for days and months. Nothing happened. Why he did not take the plunge I don’t know but his practice of helping build kalyanmandapams and the like is not enough passport to electoral politics’.

In this context, the experience of thespian Shivaji Ganesan is cited to make the point that even in a land where film hero worship is the order all heroes cannot make it big in elections. Shivaji was in and out of Congress and had lost an assembly election.

An interesting point, several political pundits here make is that caste is not primary for winning an election. It plays a peripheral role in electoral politics, according to a Left thinker.

But CPI general secretary A B Bardhan doesn’t see any thing wrong in caste based politics. “As a Communist I am opposed to caste politics but caste is a reality in politics. What can I do? BSP, SP are caste based parties. What is wrong if the OBCs want a share in political power pie? So if he (Chiranjivi) starts a new party, let us see what happens. Let him first announce his plan and plank”.

In Andhra Pradesh, several leaders are ready to jump on the Chiranjivi band wagon if it gets rolling. This is giving sleepless nights to the two main local players, the Telugu Desam party (TDP) started by NTR and now run by his son-in-law, Chandrababu Naidu, and the good old Congress party.

Some social scientists hold the view that ‘Andhra Pradesh is not Uttar Pradesh and that Mayawati, whatever be the clamour among the political class, will not make an impact on Andhra Pradesh scene. More over, unlike in UP and Bihar, in AP, Scheduled castes are not united.

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This view is shared by senior Left and BJP leaders who point out that the scheduled castes are divided into two camps – Malas ( the traditionally front runners with high literacy rates) and Madigas ( the largest in numbers but insignificant in the share of political pie). ‘Bringing about unity in the SC ranks doesn’t appear to be possible. Any how, even before these divisions happened, BSP, during the hey days of Kanshiram, had failed to make inroads into Andhra Pradesh’.

And on their part, the Telugu OBCs are not a homogenous group and this fact may come in the way of new polarisation. “Kapus are a dominant group. In coastal districts they are rich but in Telangana they are poor. Also, once political chips are down other marginalised OBCs will clamour for their share under the sun. Like it happened in Bihar where Nitish Kumar brought together the OBCs whom Lalu Prasad Yadav neglected or ignored by default”.

Nonetheless, the overwhelming view is ‘Chiranjivi’s potential as a vote getter cannot be minimised. He will be a big draw even if he is not cut in the NTR mould. If he plays his cards well, he can create a new niche for himself in Andhra Pradesh Politics.

Mayawati is planning to hold a massive rally in Hyderabad in January. It will be a repeat of her Mumbai show that was staged early December. But Left leaders aver, ‘Behenji may not have an impact in Andhra. She will certainly get good response in Maharashtra. The ground is fertile for her party there. BSP may win some 30-40 assembly seats’.