Jaipur Blasts and the Pak crisis

by M Rama Rao, May 17, 2008

The Jaipur blasts threw up swift reactions in the Pakistani media. Most mainline dailies came out with editorials two days after the eight blasts rocked downtown Jaipur on Tuesday. A common thread running through these commentaries is that the four-year-old 'peace process' between India and Pakistan must not derail. Fair enough.

There was, however, strange silence on the question on another, equally grave issue. None of the leading papers, whether the Lahore-based Daily Times or Dawn of Karachi, bothered to spare even an inch of column space to the Pakistan Army's act of firing across the Line of Control (LoC) in north Jammu & Kashmir also on the same day. The Indian media, meanwhile, termed the firing as "heavy" and commented on it as the "first clear-cut major violation" (The Times of India) of the almost five-year-old "ceasefire" along the contentious LOC.

The "ceasefire" was a confidence building measure agreed to by both sides and is enforced not only along the 778-km long LoC but also 198-km long International Border (IB) and the 110-km Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) in the Siachen Glacier, which emerged as the highest battle field under Gen Zia-ul Haq doctrine of 'Bleed India'.

Over the past five years there have been instances of firing from across the border but these were minor and at best sporadic aimed at providing cover to militants attempting to sneak into India. Only a week back, the Samba sector witnessed major infiltration and the killing of a photo-journalist covering the gunfight between militants and troops. But on Tuesday, the firing came directly from Pakistan Army's Papa bunker post targetting the Indian T-Hut bunker which was around 9,000 feet from the LoC. It was not just fire cover to infiltrating militants but as military sources said, "an irrefutable violation of the ceasefire CBM".

There is, however, some significance which Pakistan commentators have not missed. The leader writer of Daily Times wrote: "The blasts (and also ceasefire violation) occurred on the 10th anniversary of the May 13 nuclear tests' that India had conducted in Rajasthan where Jaipur is located."

For decades now, it has been standard practice for Pakistan to whip up anti-India sentiments whenever the domestic going becomes tough. And admittedly, the Asif Zardari-led People's Party of Pakistan (PPP) and its Government are facing tough challenges, what with inflation raging at a record 30 per cent and foe-cum-ally Nawaz Sharif demanding his pound of flesh as the "saviour" of the coalition. The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) leader has made his Ministers walk out of the coalition but that move has not deprived him of the ability to undermine the Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani Government.

The Zardari-Nawaz differences are not centred on the question of reinstating former Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, as some media reports say. These are far more fundamental and relate to Mr Zardari's willingness to do business with President Pervez Musharraf at the behest of the Americans, who see the General as their only link their plans to checkmate Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

For a layman steeped in conventional politics, the Zardari gamble may appear as political suicide. But as News International editorialised on May 12, Benazir Bhutto's husband "has his compulsions". To begin with, the "permanent establishment of Pakistan", an expression coined by News International to describe the Army and intelligence set-up as also the top brass of the civil service, is not neutral but sharply divided into pro-Musharraf and pro-Nawaz Sharif factions.

The Musharraf camp has been pampering the PPP. Initially, it offered several concessions to Bhutto. After her assassination, Mr Zardari has been kept in good humour. This makes the shrewd businessman tag along Musharrafites and milk their desperation to his advantage. He has two immediate goals. The first is to install a government of his choice in Punjab and second is to fix the Chaudhry brothers -- Shujaat Hussain and Pervaiz Elahi -- who dominate the PML-Quaid ("Kings Party") created by Gen Musharraf in the early days of his presidency.

The pro-Sharif establishment includes primarily his Saudi backers and the ethnic Punjabi elite, which had forced his return in a bid to offset the return of Bhutto. They are no longer enamoured of his anti-Musharraf plank and are therefore reluctant to push his cause beyond a point. The turn of events shows that Mr Sharif's politics have once again hit a dead-end, unless of course his overseas patrons like to put up one more rescue act for him. At any rate, the homegrown patrons would not like to distance themselves from Gen Musharraf as they see their interests are secure in the longevity of the General in the presidential palace.

What would Ms Bhutto have done had she been alive? This is a question with no answers. She may have attempted to strike the middle path by cashing in on her image as the "Daughter of the East" and as a bridge for the West to the Muslim world. She would not have discarded Gen Musharraf since he had gone out of his way to ensure her return home and participation in the elections last year.

By refusing to quickly solve the judges' issue, Mr Zardari has helped Gen Musharraf in no small measure. And, as a leading Pakistani daily said editorially, "(The) Musharraf camp is back in business and the President seems to be in high spirits making efforts to revive the PML(Q) by ditching the Chaudhrys". The Daily Times doesn't rule out the possibility of PPP and PML(Q) forming a coalition. Already, PML(Q) seniors like Sher Afgan Khan Niazi, Rana Asif Tauseef and Mohammed Asim Nazir are openly active at the behest of Gen Musharraf.

In his media interactions, Mr Gillani has emerged as a soft spoken gentleman who is determined to break with the past. And his answer to an Indian journalist about Dawood Ibrahim was interesting. While trying to be different, he ended up exactly as his predecessors. "If India shows proof of Dawood Ibrahim's existence, we will send him to your country", Mr Gillani told Karan Thapar in a CNN-IBN interview early May. The interview took place shortly after Mr Gillani visited Muzaffarabad (April 30) and addressed Kashmiri leaders. It was his first visit outside Islamabad after becoming Prime Minister.

Significantly, Mr Gillani visited the General Headquarters of the Army on May 14 to review the country's security preparedness. This reveals his urgency to satisfy anti-India elements ahead of the context of the coming round of the composite dialogue process. Already, some elements have put the India-Pakistan kettle on the boil by raising the bogey of "help to Nepal". They have needlessly started demanding transit rights to "humanitarian relief" to Nepal, which is hit hard by India's decision to ban food exports.

In short, the Jaipur tragedy was just one manifestation of a power struggle within Pakistan. In the coming months, the "peace process" is bound to be stretched to its limits.